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An unpredictable first round puts a host of different options on the table for Green Bay. Here are some potential situations and how Brian Gutekunst may react."Kyler Murray will be the No. 1 pick ... unless he’s not. Ed Oliver will be the third pick to the Jets Rashan Gary Jersey 2019 , except they could take someone else. The Giants love Daniel Jones and could take him at 6, unless they wait until 17 and don’t take a quarterback at all. Some years, the draft feels easy, with obvious landing spots for top players and teams able to make straightforward decisions on players. That isn’t 2019, with subterfuge galore, a No. 1 pick we still can’t nail down, a top pass rusher with a heart condition that could cause a fall on draft day, and few clearly defined No. 1 players at their positions. In some ways, that makes this year the ideal time for the Packers to be in a position at 12 to pick up the proverbial pieces. If the league gets quarterback happy, good players fall down the board them where they’re picking. If they get belatedly interested, Green Bay becomes a primo trade-down destination and the draft class features depth at a number of key positions for the Packers’ current roster situation. With that in mind, we decided to look at a few moves the Packers could make and figure out how they could make sense. What has to happen for that move to be the move and why would it make sense for the Packers? Ed Oliver or Montez Sweat fall to 12 This scenario has a different feel following the reporting around Sweat’s heart condition that has reportedly caused him to fall down some draft boards. Oliver comes with no such baggage and, as one of the 3-5 best players in the draft, getting him at 12 represents almost comical value. How could the NFL let this happen? Let’s say three quarterbacks go in the first 11 picks. We’re also pretty sure Joey Bosa, Josh Allen and Quinnen Williams are sure-fire in that range, along with Devin White a shade behind them. That’s already seven players. Jonah Williams seems like a good bet and TJ Hockenson has many admirers in the top group. That’s all of a sudden nine players gone. Oliver and Sweat would have to both go to take this scenario off the board. Sweat’s apparent fall would make it less likely Oliver gets to 12, but it could make it easier to envision the Mississippi State edge rusher getting there. Right now, he feels like the better bet to be there, but stranger things have happened. Either would be enormous talent influxes at key positions. I have Oliver as No. 3 overall and Sweat No. 5, each as blue-chip talents. Pass on them for no one and (almost) nothing. Packers go offensive line If the scenario above doesn’t happen, likely because the quarterback market wasn’t what we believed it to be, Green Bay could be in good position to land one of the top players along the offensive line. Jonah Williams could be a guard or a tackle and even if he ends up as a guard, where he has the chance to be very good, he’s still a college offensive tackle which the Packers love. He’s not the athlete the front office traditionally prizes, but neither was Bryan Bulaga, someone to whom Williams has been compared. If Billy Turner is the eventual right tackle, Williams makes sense as a right guard. Andre Dillard or Jawaan Taylor would also be in play here. Taylor has top-10 buzz and could go off the board at 6 or 7. We don’t know his athletic profile because he didn’t test, but on tape, he doesn’t appear to be Green Bay’s type. Dillard, on the other hand, checks every athletic box and might just be the best pass blocker in the draft. If Turner is, in fact, the right guard of the future, Dillard as the right tackle would make 12 more than appealing for abookend tackle. T.J. Hockenson too good to pass up No. 1 scenario would be off the board in this case. No. 2 would either be unavailable or untenable. Perhaps the Packers still think Bulaga has juice left in the tank and they’re comfortable with Turner for now at guard. We have ample evidence to suggest this isn’t true, starting with the efforts the Packers have made to get Bulaga to take less money before not offering an extension in the last year of his deal. There’s also the extensive work being done by the team on offensive linemen in this draft. They want one. They just may not like the value they’re getting at 12 with the players on the board. Perhaps they believe Williams is a guard only and they can’t justify his selection that high. It’s possible they believe Turner is the right tackle of the future and Dillard now has the same problem as Williams as a potential guard position switch. Enter Hockenson, a fan favorite and ideal fit in the Matt LaFleur offense. As a blocker, he makes the offensive line better. As a receiver, he has talent and run-after-the-catch ability. At worst Color Rush Rashan Gary Jersey , he’s probably Heath Miller. The ceiling is something closer to Jason Witten. The history of top tight end picks is scary, but in this offense, with this quarterback, Hock has a chance to reach the ceiling others haven’t. Washington/Mystery Team calls about a QB This scenario likely presupposes Scenario 1 is off the table. Getting Oliver or Sweat should be too good a cherry to pass on for anything but a godfather offer. Green Bay can justify passing on Derwin James last year because the Saints gave up a future first. A team like Washington wouldn’t have to give up that much to move, though a team further down the draft would like have to make a Saintsian offer. One of the trade possibilities is Washington gives up 15 and 76 for 12. Gutekunst could then package 30 and 76 to move into the 20s for a top prospect falling down the board (Hock? DK Metcalf?). Come out of the first round with two really good players and don’t give up anything of value except the opportunity cost of picking at 12. If the Packers sit there at 12 with Hockenson, Noah Fant, Devin Bush, Andre Dillard, their favorite safety and their favorite receiver all on the board, trading down means only truly giving up two draft spots. Washington takes the QB the Packers were never going to take and they get to pick from the rest.Green Bay shocks us with wild pick Jonah Williams, if he plays guard, would break tendencies for the Packers but only on the margins. Devin Bush would be a little off the wall for them, but Ted Thompson took A.J. Hawk in the top-10. No one with half a brain actually believes Green Bay would take Drew Lock at 12, but it behooves the team for the league to think they might.No, the wild card selection that could legitimately happen and make sense is D.K. Metcalf. He’s the kind of ridiculous size/speed athlete that has to give Gutekunst goosebumps given the way he prioritizes athletic traits. Metcalf’s ability to get down the field in Matt LaFleur’s offense provides an ideal compliment to the artisanship of Davante Adams running double moves and creating underneath. Let Metcalf run flies, posts, slants, crossers, all places LaFleur has room for in this offense, and any concerns about his route running or change of direction ability can be put to bed. This would be shocking because the Packers never take receivers, but Metcalf is a legitimate top-10 talent and for my money, the only better prospects discussed above better than him in a vacuum are Oliver and Sweat. If they’re off the board, Metcalf isn’t a cray selection at a spot where Green Bay has no clear answers after Adams. Why get a slight upgrade at one position when you can improve much more with multiple upgrades for the same amount of money?"Packers Free Agency 2019The Packers absolutely should not sign free agent RB Le’Veon Bell in 2019Why get a slight upgrade at one position when you can improve much more with multiple upgrades for the same amount of money?CSTShareTweetShareShareThe Packers absolutely should not sign free agent RB Le’Veon Bell in 2019The Green Bay Packers continue to see speculation about the team signing free agent running back Le’Veon Bell, formerly of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Most recently, beat writer Pete Dougherty said that Bell should be one of the team’s targets in free agency.Bell sat out the 2018 season because of his demands for a new contract, and he will be a free agent again in 2019. Is he one of the best running backs in the NFL? Yes. Would he make a team better? Almost certainly. But how much would he really improve a team? And would that improvement match up with the amount of money it would cost to get him in the door? Those are the critical questions when looking at signing him, and the answer is simple: he’s not worth the money.ContractBell is on the record saying he wants to be paid like a top wide receiver. He refused to play a second straight year on the franchise tag in 2018, a contract that would have paid him $14.544 million, all of it fully guaranteed.Currently, the biggest long-term contract for a running back belongs to Todd Gurley, who signed an extension before the 2018 season. That deal takes him through 2024, and it went down as a four-year, $57.5 million extension. That equates to $14.375M per year, just under Bell’s tag value. Presumably, Bell would want more in annual compensation than Gurley received, so we’re looking at something around $15M per year for Bell.In addition, he would almost certainly want a four-year deal at minimum, which brings the total to $60M. Let’s say he gets around $20M in a signing bonus; if for some reason he disappointed massively and the Packers needed to move on after two years Cheap Rashan Gary Jersey , they would take a $10M dead hit on their salary cap in 2021.Marginal ContributionsAs with any signing, it’s not the total production a player brings that determines whether he’s worth his contract to that team. Any team in a salary cap league must evaluate how best to spend its money, prioritizing return on investment. Therefore, given the Packers’ success with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams the past two years, the marginal upgrade Bell would likely provide at running back is not remotely worth the $15M/year investment.Think about it: if you’re Brian Gutekunst, you can get some potential upgrade to the running back position for that amount of money, or you can use that $15M to upgrade multiple other positions. We’ll examine some better uses of that money shortly; first, let’s examine the upgrade that Bell would provide over Jones and Williams.Upgrade at Running Back?Zach Kruse of Packers Wire has been beating this drum for a while now. He did it last season, when Bell was reportedly seeking a trade, by looking at the Packers’ three running backs in 2017: Jones, Williams, and Ty Montgomery. Kruse refenced a tweet by NFL analyst Marcus Mosher, which observed that that trio had the exact same yards per touch average (when combining their numbers) as Bell did that year:On Monday, he did it again by comparing the two second-year Packers in 2018 to that 2017 season from Bell:Hey, look at that! Jones and Williams actually performed better on a per-touch basis in 2018 than Bell did in his most recent season. Their yards per carry was almost seven-tenths of a yard higher than Bell’s, thanks in large part to Aaron Jones’ stellar 5.5 mark, which led the NFL. Football Outsiders’ DVOA stat tells a similar story — the Packers’ rushing attack ranked third in that per-play efficiency stat in both 2017 (+10.6%) and in 2018 (+12.4%), while the 2017 Steelers were sixth with a much less-impressive +3.0% value.Now let’s look a bit closer at the individual players’ advanced numbers, both DVOA and DYAR (which is the total production corollary to DVOA). Note that DYAR fluctuates based on usage, so the fact that the Packers ran the ball fewer than any other team in the NFL will depress their running backs’ rushing DYAR numbers.2018 Jones: 16.9% rushing DVOA, 145 rushing DYAR; 2.2% receiving DVOA, 33 receiving DYAR2018 Williams: 1.7% rushing DVOA, 51 rushing DYAR; -9.3% receiving DVOA, 11 receiving DYAR2018 Total: 196 rushing DYAR, 44 receiving DYAR, 240 total DYAR2017 Bell: 7.9% rushing DVOA, 214 rushing DYAR; 2.5% receiving DVOA, 101 receiving DYAR; 315 total DYARNow, a 75 DYAR difference is notable, but that comes on 99 fewer touches than Bell had. Also note that the biggest difference comes in receiving production. How about addinga proven receiving back like Tevin Coleman for around $5M per year? That number is Spotrac’s estimate of his market value, and signing him could give the Packers tons of flexibility in the backfield, allowing them to roll out a three-headed monster to play the matchups and saving the team $10M annually compared to signing Bell. As an added bonus here: Coleman and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur are plenty familiar with one another, since they were together for two years with the Falcons.Plus, when looking at per-play efficiency, Jones was better in ‘18 — admittedly on a smaller sample size — than Bell was the year before. Can we find improvements of 75 DYAR for cheaper than $15M? Most definitely, and we’ll do so shortly.Steelers’ RBsLet’s take the Bell analysis even farther and look at the dropoff (or lack thereof) from Bell to the Steelers’ 2018 running backs, James Conner and Jaylen Samuels. There is a common refrain among a certain sect of NFL analysts, that running backs are fungible assets Rashan Gary Jersey Womens , and that is borne out by several situations in 2018. Take the Los Angeles Rams, for example. When Todd Gurley was injured late in the season, they plucked C.J. Anderson off the street and had essentially no drop in production from the position. The dropoff from Bell to the tandem of Conner and Samuels — a 2017 third-round draft pick and a 2018 fifth-rounder, respectively — was also minimal:Conner/Samuels271 carries, 1,229 yards (4.53 YPC), 12 TDs; 81 receptions, 696 yards (8.59 YPR), 4 TDsTotal yards per touch: 5.46The Steelers got better per-carry averages (4.53 to 4.02) and better per-reception averages (8.59 to 7.71) with Conner and Samuels in 2018 than Bell had in 2017, demonstrating that they were in all likelihood better off with Bell refusing to play. The advanced stats are a little different, but they make the two options seem nicely comparable, regardless of whether you’re looking at per-play efficiency (DVOA) or total cumulative production (DYAR):2018 Conner: 2.4% rushing DVOA, 100 rushing DYAR; 15.2% receiving DVOA, 112 receiving DYAR2018 Samuels: -1.2% DVOA, 17 rushing DYAR; 36.4% receiving DVOA, 79 receiving DYAR2018 Total: 117 rushing, 191 receiving (308 total DYAR)2017 Bell: 7.9% rushing DVOA, 214 rushing DYAR; 2.5% receiving DVOA, 101 receiving DYAR; 315 total DYARThat’s almost the exact same total production from the Steelers’ two running backs in 2018 as Bell had the year before, with those backs providing much more as receivers — which is typically one of the hallmarks of the arguments in Bell’s favor.Other InvestmentsIt’s too early to tell exactly who will be available on the free agent market this season, but it’s a good bet that a team could get a much better bang for their buck at other positions.Take slot receiver, for example. In 2018, Randall Cobb was bad — he had had negative-45 DYAR on 61 targets. Now, I don’t mean to throw more gasoline on the Cole Beasley fire that has been raging recently, but he would have been a huge upgrade over Cobb last season. Beasley had a round 100 DYAR on 87 targets, and adjusting that total down for the difference in targets puts him at an even 70. Swapping him in for Cobb would represent a net gain of 115 DYAR, and he could come with a price tag around $5 million/year. The difference in production between Bell and the Packers’ current running backs is more than accounted for at a third of the price.This is just an example, of course, and it relies on projecting DYAR values from prior seasons forward. However, it does help illustrate just see how small of an upgrade Bell would likely provide over the Packers’ runners.It’s not as easy to quantify the impact of adding an offensive lineman or a pass-rusher, since there is no DYAR or DVOA for those positions, but those spots would almost assuredly provide a better bang for the buck than signing Bell. Even the top free agent guards will likely max out around $8 million per year. How about using $15 million to try to sign a pass-rusher like Dee Ford instead? That number would put him right around the top ten highest-paid edge rushers, a good spot for him. Is there any argument that the marginal upgrade from Jones/Williams to Bell would be greater than going from Clay Matthews/Reggie Gilbert to Ford? Going after a second-tier player like Dante Fowler or Preston Smith could be an excellent alternative as well, and they would take up less cap space.Gutekunst could alternately use this cap space on a safety. Landon Collins ($9.3M/year market value, per Spotrac) or Earl Thomas (likely to get around the same) would provide instant playmaking ability in the Packers’ secondary. Tyrann Mathieu could do the same if he sees the Packers as an immediate contender. If you’re intent on signing a free agent running back, pair Tevin Coleman with one of these safeties to upgrade two positions for the price of one.There are numerous ways that the Packers could use the money that Le’Veon Bell would demand to improve their team. It’s easy to imagine any number of scenarios which would cost the same or less than Bell and should lead to a much bigger marginal impact than what Bell would provide on his own.